Jul 17, 2026, 6:00 p.m.
2 min read
Summary
- Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act a 32% chance of passing by year-end, its lowest level since the market launched in January.
- Senate negotiations remain focused on winning Democratic support, with a bipartisan ethics provision emerging as the bill's biggest obstacle.
- Industry executives urged Congress to pass the legislation, arguing that clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore.
The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year have fallen to their lowest level ever on crypto prediction market Polymarket, reflecting growing skepticism that Congress will pass the landmark crypto market structure legislation before the end of 2025.
As of Friday, traders gave the bill a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down roughly 30 percentage points from when the market launched on Jan. 11. The odds climbed as high as 82% on Feb. 19 but have steadily declined since early May as the Senate's legislative calendar has narrowed and questions have mounted over whether lawmakers can assemble the bipartisan support needed to advance the bill.
The decline comes despite continued negotiations behind the scenes.
Earlier this month, lawmakers were working on an updated legislative text that was expected to be released the following week, though it had yet to win Democratic backing. President Donald Trump was expected to meet with Senate Republicans yesterday to discuss the bill.
The lack of an ethics provision remains one of the biggest sticking points. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of two Democrats who voted to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly said he will not support the legislation on the Senate floor without a bipartisan ethics provision. Other Democrats have raised similar concerns over conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.
As of Friday, there had been no public readout from Thursday's White House meeting, and no bipartisan ethics language had emerged, leaving one of the bill's largest obstacles unresolved.
If passed, the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets by drawing a clearer line between assets regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and those overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Supporters argue the measure would replace years of regulation through enforcement with rules written by Congress.
Industry executives reiterated that message during a House hearing Friday marking one year since the chamber passed the legislation.
"The community has already done the hard work," Nova Labs executive Sarah Aberg told lawmakers, arguing that regulatory uncertainty delayed investment in the Helium wireless network after the SEC sued the company in a case that was later settled. "Clarity is not a call for deregulation; it is a call for the right regulation from the right regulator."
Bullish executive Randy Abernethy said companies need "a rule book" that brings digital asset markets under U.S. oversight rather than driving firms abroad. Bullish is CoinDesk’s corporate parent. WisdomTree's Ryan Louvar said legislation would create durable rules that survive changes in administrations, while Coin Center's Jason Sommensatto argued the bill protects software developers without weakening anti-money laundering or investor safeguards.
With Congress approaching its August recess and only a limited number of legislative weeks remaining afterward, traders appear increasingly doubtful the bill will reach the president's desk before the end of the year.
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