Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its best month of July since 2022, but analysis warns that the result could be firmly bearish.
Key points:
- Bitcoin is nearing double-digit gains for July, but market reactions draw comparisons to 2022.
- Bear-market patterns call for downside to resume next month before a Q4 bottom.
- $70,000 remains a target for the current bounce.
Analyst sees BTC price "picking up" for rest of July before reversal
Data from CoinGlass shows that at 9.5%, BTC/USD is setting a four-year record for July gains.
Bitcoin’s last bear-market year, in 2022, saw price end July nearly 17% higher after significant 38% losses the month prior. What happened in August, however, showed that calls for bullish continuation at the time were premature. BTC/USD fell by around 14%, followed by a further 3% drop in September.
This time, market participants are thus predictably cautious over short-term price strength.
“$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the CoinGlass numbers in an X post on Saturday.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that even taking bull markets into account, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%.
“This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes during the Summer time,” he added.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Also concerned about seasonality is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who notes that BTC price performance in 2026 is matching its previous bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he told X followers this week.
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital sees August canceling out this month’s gains in preparation for a classic bear-market bottom later in the year.
$70,000 on the radar for July BTC price bounce
Other market participants are meanwhile preparing targets for the rest of July, with $70,000 becoming popular.
Related: Bitcoin returns to $64.3K with new 3-week BTC price highs imminent
“Interesting few days ahead,” Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto YouTube channel, forecast while analyzing the daily chart.
Another trader eyed the area between $67,000 and $73,000 for a short entry, also predicting a “bullish July, then Bearish August until Q4.”
“Q4 is when the real volatility takes place for BTC (both directions),” Daan Crypto Trades concluded.
“Will this year be the same?”
Earlier, Cointelegraph flagged multiple onchain indicators now flashing bear-market bottom signals for the first time in four years.
Overall demand, meanwhile, has shown only partial signs of recovery.
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