Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 p.m.
2 min read
Summary
- Bitcoin has started 2026 with two consecutive losing quarters, falling about 22% in the first quarter and 14% in the second, a pattern previously seen only in the structurally bearish years of 2018 and 2022.
- While bitcoin’s historical seasonality points to weak third quarters and strong fourth quarters, those patterns broke down in 2018 and 2022, when deeper market stresses turned typically strong year-end rallies into steep declines.
- The current downturn appears driven less by panic than by steady selling tied to record outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, subdued on-chain activity, a strong dollar and investor rotation into AI stocks, with some analysts eyeing $40,000 as the next key support level.
Bitcoin BTC$58,471.34 closed the first half of 2026 down in both quarters, a rare start that puts the year in company it would rather avoid.
The largest cryptocurrency fell 22.2% in the first quarter and another 14.09% in the second, according to Coinglass data, and was trading just above $59,000 on Wednesday as the third quarter began.
Consecutive losing quarters to open a year is something bitcoin has done only twice before in its history, in 2018 and 2022. Both rank among the worst years in its history.
The second half of those two years offered no rescue. In 2018, after a weak first half, the third quarter eked out a 3.6% gain before the fourth quarter collapsed 42%. In 2022, the third quarter fell 2.6% and the fourth dropped nearly 15%.
Both were structural bear markets, 2018 driven by the unwinding of the initial-coin-offering bubble and 2022 by the-then failures of the Terra stablecoin and the FTX exchange.
The seasonal pattern normally runs the other way. Across bitcoin's full record, the fourth quarter has been its strongest by a wide margin, averaging a 77% gain with a median near 48%, the stretch that has repeatedly salvaged mediocre years.
The third quarter is the opposite, the weakest quarter on average and often flat. The calendar, in other words, would normally argue for a quiet third quarter and a strong fourth-quarter finish. In 2018 and 2022, that seasonal strength failed. The bear market overrode the calendar, and the fourth quarter, usually the best, became one of the worst.
A sample of two may tell little on its own and both of those years turned on specific collapses that have no exact equivalent today. The comparison does not mean 2026 must follow 2018 or 2022, but it does mean the only other times bitcoin started a year this weakly, the weakness was a symptom of something structural rather than a passing dip.
Whether 2026 belongs in that category depends on what is driving the selling, and the drivers look more like a grind than a panic.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record outflows over the past month, the number of active users onchain has stayed near the low end of its range, and capital has rotated steadily into AI stocks, which just posted their best quarter in years while crypto fell.
A strong dollar, lifted further this week by the Japanese yen's slide to a 40-year low, has added pressure.
FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich has flagged $40,000 as the next meaningful support if that floor gives way. The third quarter has opened with a slight gain of about 1%, leaving the question open.
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