Jul 3, 2026, 11:27 a.m.
3 min read
Summary
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
With bitcoin BTC$61,884.29 and the broader crypto market showing signs of life, defensive positioning in the market has eased, not disappeared, a sign of continued caution.
This is evident from the BTC and ether (ETH) options markets listed on Deribit, where put options, derivative contracts offering protection against price slides, continue to trade at a premium to calls, or bullish contracts.
Bitcoin's one-week, 25-delta put-call skew, which measures the difference in volatility for puts relative to calls, was around 16%. It showed puts outpacing demand by a 16% vol point premium. That’s still notably elevated, though significantly lower than the 25% of 10 days ago, according to data source Velo.
The one-, three-, and six-month skews also show put premiums of around 10% or more. The same is true for ether.
The message is clear. Downside fears persist, keeping demand for insurance against price declines intact even though BTC long-term holders and ETF investors appear to have returned to accumulation.
Besides, some of the largest block flows in options still point to range-bound positions rather than bullish expectations. Consider block flows, trades that are negotiated over the counter and then listed on the exchange. These typically involve institutions and large traders seeking privacy for their transactions.
According to Laevitas, one of the big flows has been a long call condor on BTC. The strategy involved long positions in July 17 expiry calls at the $64,000 and $70,000 strikes and short positions in the same expiry calls at $66,000 and $68,000. This strategy makes the most money if, on July 17, BTC trades between $66,000 and $68,000.
The U.S. markets are closed Friday on account of the Independence Day weekend. Liquidity is likely to be thin during the extended weekend, which may lead to erratic moves. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Securitize tokenizes $295 million of its own stock on Solana and Avalanche amid NYSE debut (CoinDesk): Securitize (SECZ), a tokenization specialist backed by BlackRock (BLK) and ARK Invest, began trading on the NYSE Thursday, and brought its own shares to blockchain investors.
- Finally. $221 million flow into Bitcoin ETFs, ending a painful 10-day outflow streak (CoinDesk): Fidelity’s FBTC led the charge with a $165.96 million inflow, followed by ARKB at $91.84 million and HODL at $4.35 million. BlackRock’s IBIT was the outlier with a $40.43 million outflow.
- World shares rally after Dow hits a record, as some AI shares bounce back (AP): Shares advanced Friday in Europe and Asia after the Dow Jones Industrial Average set another record, as some key AI-related stocks rose while others extended losses. U.S. markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
- Oil prices stable as US-Iran peace efforts hold (Reuters): Oil prices were steady on Friday as traders held on to hopes that attempts to secure peace in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran would succeed. Brent futures stood at $71.97 and West Texas Intermediate, $68.71.
Today’s signal
The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio is rising again and fast approaching its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
Here's why that average matters. Since December, the ratio's recovery rallies have run into strong selling pressure around that level. The yellow boxes on the chart show that.
So, as the ratio approaches that average, it's worth paying attention to whether it manages to establish a foothold above the key level. If it does, that could be the strongest signal yet of a bottom and bullish turnaround in ether relative to bitcoin.
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