Jun 23, 2026, 11:16 a.m.
3 min read
Summary
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Bitcoin's BTC$62,344.19 volatility is cheap, particularly on the bullish side, heading into Friday's $10.5 billion quarterly options expiry, according to dominant derivatives exchange Deribit.
The exchange's bitcoin volatility index, DVOL, which measures the annualized 30-day expected, or implied, volatility, is trading at 41.5%. That's well below February's peak of 90%, though not quite as cheap as May's lows.
"Vol is cheap relative to its own history but no longer at fire-sale levels," Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk.
Cheap volatility means traders are pricing in smaller price swings for the largest cryptocurrency than they have for most of the past year. This makes options, contracts used to hedge against price swings, cheaper to buy. Volatility is said to be mean-reverting, so traders often buy options, or bet on volatility, when it appears cheap relative to its key averages.
Péquignot said volatility for calls is significantly cheaper than for puts, explaining the relative attractiveness of call spreads, a bullish strategy.
"Call spreads remain attractive for anyone wanting recovery exposure into the post-quarterly reset. And now look even better on a relative-vol basis, since call spread longs are buying the cheaper wing of a skew that is leaning the other way," he said.
There are a number of factors that might drive volatility higher in the near term. Friday's options expiry, for example, which Péquignot described as "traditionally one of the most significant liquidity events on the annual calendar."
Moreover, ahead of the expiry, options traders who bought puts, or downside bets, in recent months are sitting in profit. That is, they are in the money, while those who bought calls are set to see their bets expire worthless.
"With spot at 64k, the June 26 book is net long puts in the money and long calls out of the money – the embedded loss is sitting with the call buyers who chased the 80k+ strikes," Péquignot noted.
The sharp decline in Alphabet (GOOG) and SpaceX (SPCX) stocks, and declines in Asian equity indexes is another factor that could stoke volatility in bitcoin, which often takes its cue from technology stocks.
Not to forget, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, is scheduled for release Thursday and is expected to show price pressures at their strongest since May 2024. Such a reading may breed volatility across assets, including Treasury notes and cryptocurrencies. Stay alert!
Today’s signal
The chart shows daily swings in the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, since late 2024.
The index has topped 101, convincingly breaking out of a prolonged choppy trading. This decisive bullish flip could draw more bids from momentum traders, potentially leading to more gains ahead.
A strengthening DXY typically weighs on dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin and gold.
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