Jul 14, 2026, 11:15 a.m.
3 min read
Summary
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Bitcoin BTC$62,717.18 has fallen in the past 24 hours to $62,600 as traders exited riskier investments amid growing inflation concerns tied to rising oil prices.
Brent crude is up nearly 4% in the period, reflecting the renewed open conflict between the U.S. and Iran. That’s reigniting the so-called Nacho (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens) trade, which bets the strategic waterway stays shut.
The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index lost 0.6% of its value over the same period while equities benchmarks in Europe are down about 1% and U.S. index futures 0.3%.
Attacks on tankers have reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies before the conflict and has been de-facto closed for 136 days. Oil prices reached a four-week high after hostilities restarted.
The move reverses part of the peace trade that helped bitcoin recover from its late-June lows. Higher oil prices raise near-term inflation risks, pushing up Treasury yields and reducing demand for rate-sensitive assets.
The renewed fighting saw the perceived odds of Hormuz reopening by the end of the year drop from 65% to 56%. Traders see next to no chance of a reopening by month's end.
Prediction markets assigned a 36% chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this month. The shift has pushed the two-year Treasury yield to 4.28%, extending a rate-hike trade that has previously pressured bitcoin and gold.
June CPI is the next test, and it's due later today. Headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 3.8% from 4.2% from a year ago, while core inflation is forecast to hold at 2.9%.
A soft print could reduce July interest-rate hike bets, while hotter-than-expected data would likely cement the possibility. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Iran and US stage new attacks, battle over control of Strait of Hormuz (Reuters): Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan on Tuesday and the U.S. attacked Iranian targets for five hours in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz that pushed up oil prices to four-week highs.
- U.S. government moves $288 million in seized bitcoin, ether to Coinbase Prime (CoinDesk): Wallets identified as being tied to the U.S. government moved about $288 million in seized bitcoin and ether onto Coinbase Prime on Monday, according to Arkham data.
- Bitcoin slips as traders lift July Fed rate hike bets ahead of Inflation report (CoinDesk): Major cryptocurrencies came under pressure, reflecting heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as soon as July, ahead of key U.S. inflation data and congressional testimony from Chair Kevin Warsh.
Today’s signal
The plot shows the ratio of altcoin market capitalization (excluding the Top 10 tokens) to bitcoin market cap on a weekly basis.
The ratio has stagnated since failing to break above the core resistance line.
Not only is there no clear momentum in altcoins relative to bitcoin at the moment, there are also no signs of a change in direction coming in the short term.
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